Will it be a SNO ball or a SNO fall?

Tomorrow will see the next step in what has been one of the more drawn out telecoms sagas of recent times, barring, of course, the third cellular licence affair (what is it about telecoms licence bids, anyway?)

The Independent Communications Authority of SA (ICASA) will make its recommendation to communications minister Ivy Matsepe-Casaburri tomorrow as to which - if either - of the bidding consortiums should be awarded the 51% stake in the second network operator (SNO) licence.

Personally, I think we will see the licence awarded, and probably sooner, rather than later.

Rodney Weidemann, Journalist, ITWeb

The SNO process up to this point has had more twists and turns than a roller-coaster ride and could yet be a long way from over.

Last year, there was a worry that no bidders would come forward before the deadline expired. In the end, Optis and Goldleaf threw their hats into the ring and went through much the same process that the current bidders have gone through, only to be told that neither would be recommended.

Thus we came to the second round of bidding, where CommuniTel and Two Consortium were the two bidders put forward by the minister`s SNO working committee, before going through the process that has led us to where we are now: awaiting ICASA`s final recommendation.

The process itself has been interesting, to say the least. First there were the public hearings, where both bidders tried their level best to find chinks in their opponents` armour.

Then the inevitable sniping at one another through the press, responses to ICASA queries (raised at the public hearings) and finally the Next Generation report on the two bids - which in itself raised more questions, not to mention the ire of both bidding parties.

Two and CommuniTel rounded on Next`s report, claiming inaccuracies, misunderstandings and glaring errors and omissions, while Nexus Connexion - the 19% BEE component of the licence - stated that it agreed with the report and would be prepared to run the SNO with only the state-owned enterprises (which own the remaining 30%), forgoing an equity partner completely.

Since then, questions have been raised in quarters about Next Generation`s competence to analyse the bids, not to mention the process by which they were selected originally.

Certain parties close to the process have also said that the way Next`s report was compiled, coupled with Nexus`s statements about going it alone, suggest there were forces at work trying to ensure that neither bid was accepted.

Questions have also been asked in some circles about Nexus`s funding and shareholders, hinting that all may not be well with the empowerment group.

Those issues aside, there are still several key questions that remain.

Will ICASA even recommend one of the bidders? If it does, will the losing consortium attempt to challenge the result in court, as Goldleaf originally threatened to do? And will the minister act promptly to ensure that the licence is awarded quickly to whichever bidder is put forward by ICASA?

Personally, I think we will see the licence awarded, and probably sooner, rather than later.

For starters, the minister is coming to the end of her term, and will probably want to leave a clean slate for her successor, not to mention wanting to ensure she will have presided over a successful SNO process.

Secondly, there is the small matter of an upcoming election, with an ANC government that is trying desperately to win over voters that may see it as having failed to deliver.

To this end, both bidders have shareholders that may well help the government garner votes.

Mvelaphanda Holdings is part of Two Consortium`s bid, and is headed up by former Gauteng premier, Tokyo Sexwale, who still has a large and popular following with the masses.

On the other hand, the Umkhonto We Sizwe Military Veterans Association is part of the CommuniTel bid, and claims to have a membership of 46 000, with a strong grassroots reach.

So the stage is set. The ANC can deliver on its promises and garner a sizeable number of additional votes at the same time, the minister clears her plate and leaves office with head held high and the country gets its long-awaited SNO. Everybody wins.

Or so we hope.

With so many factors that can still cause hiccups in the process, perhaps it would be unwise of me to stick my neck out and make my prediction as to which consortium will be recommended by ICASA tomorrow, but I will.

Step forward CommuniTel, you`ve talked the talk, soon you will have to walk the walk.

Remember, you read it here first.