In exactly two weeks' time, South Africans will take to the polls and the country's leadership structure may be shaken up, just as the notoriously inert Department of Communications (DOC) was starting to come out of a decade-long slump, under Yunus Carrim.
Carrim took over from under-fire communications minister Dina Pule nine-and-a-half months ago, becoming the fourth minister at the helm under president Jacob Zuma's regime. With an ominous inbox and a trail of unfinished and mismanaged issues on his desk, Carrim - previously deputy minister of cooperative governance and traditional affairs - laid out a set of priorities from the get-go.
Shortly after taking over the communications portfolio, the former journalist and academic said the top five issues he would tackle from his extensive to-do list were the cost of communications, realistic progress in broadband development, SA's digital divide, the stabilisation of state-owned companies and public entities, and the rollout of digital migration.
At the time, Carrim acknowledged that, given the challenging terrain, limited time and lack of resources, the sector would have to be realistic about what was possible in terms of achieving his ambitious objectives. "There are no guarantees that all this will get done. But what there is a guarantee of is that there will be significant progress in getting there and there will be a much more consensual, yet decisive approach to doing so."
Progress, not perfection
Carrim's pledge to bring progress to a department historically plagued by uncertainty and allegations of corruption has been met, and many are hopeful he will remain in place to try and finish what he started beyond 7 May.
Ovum analyst Richard Hurst says the DOC is moving in the right direction when it comes to reducing the cost to communicate in SA - even though no "firm foundation" has been created. "Some headway has been made on the regulatory front with the new mobile termination rates, as well as the cost reduction on the DSL wholesale IP Connect."
Where the market remains unchanged, says Hurst, is in the digital divide - an area he says presents government with its greatest opportunity in terms of connecting more citizens to the information economy.
Samantha Perry, director of research and analysis at FTTH Council Africa, says reducing the digital divide is a nebulous concept. "Without some measurement of what constitutes crossing that divide it's hard to assess."
That said, Perry notes the National Broadband Policy is intended to address both the cost of communications and access to communications, as well as ensure connectivity for all. "The drafting and finalisation of the policy is important in achieving government's broadband rollout goals."
The stabilisation of state-owned entities has also been tackled and progress made, says Hurst. "Looking at the most prominent of these, Telkom SA, it seems the government is at least trying to meet its objective. Further stabilisation will serve the other government objectives such as rural access and reduced cost of communication."
The Democratic Alliance's shadow minister of communications, Marian Shinn, says the cost to communicate is progressing, but not without a fair share of heat and dust that has been caused by questionable Independent Communications Authority of SA (ICASA) process and the excessively high asymmetric rate. "So 40% of good intentions, but [Carrim] erred in trusting that when ICASA said it had followed the process in determining costs, it had - when it clearly hadn't."
In terms of progress in broadband, Shinn says there has been an attempt to communicate and put some "woema" into it by Carrim, but as far as tangible progress and renewed energy goes, "I can't see it yet".
On the whole, she says, despite the "exceptional energy" Carrim has put in to meet his targets, the reality he found as he moved around is a far bigger task than originally envisaged. "I sincerely hope minister Carrim is kept on in this portfolio, because the baptism of fire he has had is worth its weight in gold - and a good starting block for getting the DOC on track."
Some of the DOC's achievements under Carrim:
* The DOC wrapped up the long-awaited broadband strategy and policy (SA Connect).
* Cabinet approved the National Broadband Policy.
* National Broadband Advisory Council set up and convened.
* E-connectivity in education, with more than 680 schools connected since December.
* Mobile termination rate regulations lowered for six months and currently under revision.
* The ICASA Amendment Bill and the Electronic Communications Amendment Bills signed into law and gazetted (mid-April).
* Adopted a "middle of the road" approach to set-top box controls, making it optional for broadcasters (subsidised boxes will have to contain STB controls).
* The National Integrated ICT Policy Green Paper was published in January.
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