SA Internet penetration to hit 9m

By Siyabonga Africa, ITWeb junior journalist

Johannesburg, 25 Mar 2009

SA`s Internet population grew by 12.5%, to more than 4.6 million, by the end of last year, compared to 4.07 million in 2007. These findings were released in World Wide Worx`s Internet Access in SA report for 2008, which states the local Internet is to grow as much in the next five years as it did in the past 15.

The report says last year was the first time since 2001 that Internet penetration grew by more than 8%. The local Internet population is expected to continue this exponential growth rate and reach the nine million mark by 2014.

World Wide Worx MD Arthur Goldstuck predicted in his previous reports that the introduction of a national carrier, in the form of Neotel, would be the main impetus for an increase in the number of Internet users in SA.

"From having no choice at all, the South African market will suddenly be faced with two new players who are both eager to supply Internet access needs," he said in 2004.

Drivers of growth

Goldstuck says in the next five years there will be four major drivers for the rise in the Internet population; among them is the additional bandwidth capacity, which will come with the first undersea cable (Seacom) in June.

"It will increase SA`s maximum international bandwidth fivefold, and the actual capacity that was available until the end of last year will increase 30-fold. And it will gradually bring down the cost and increase the capacity available to consumers and business - but not overnight."

Goldstuck lists the granting of telecoms licences to former value-added network service providers (VANS) and Internet service providers (ISPs) as another cause for growth. He is adamant the ISPs will offer consumers more choice in Internet connectivity, which will be leveraged off the landing of the undersea cables.

SMEs migrating from dial-up connections to ADSL lines are also expected to increase the numbers, while a large number of first-time Internet users will be connected by cellphones.

"The cellphone right now is a very crude device for accessing the Internet," says Goldstuck. "We will need to see great improvements in both usability and people`s ability to use advanced features on their cellphones, and that will take another few years."

Doubts about potential

There are some doubts as to the validity of Goldstuck`s predictions and methodology in predicting the growth of SA`s Internet population in the coming years. Most analysts declined to comment as to whether the World Wide Worx report was valid in either case.

IDC analyst Richard Hurst has said, in the past, that the majority of VANS and ISPs in the country are likely to feel SA is not achieving the same levels of market traction in terms of Internet and broadband uptake as is seen in other regions, such as North Africa.

The International Telecommunication Union`s ICT Development Index (IDI), between 2002 and 2007, placed SA 87th out 150 countries around the world, which is more than 10 places down from where the country was in the previous report.

The union said SA had made little progress on increasing access and usage of ICT during the five years the report was being compiled. Only 4.8% of households in the country had Internet access in 2007 and bandwidth remained relatively low, at 852Mb per user, compared to Tunisia which had 1 800Mb per user at the time.

While SA moved down in the rankings, several other African countries moved up. The countries include Gambia, which jumped 17 places, to rank 122 on the IDI; Tunisia, which moved up 11 places, to 83rd; and Morocco, which was placed at 101, up from 111 in 2002.

Mauritius, which was ranked at 62, is still the top African country in terms of ICT development. The ITU said it had gained most on IDI value by improving in all areas, namely access, use and skills. Its broadband penetration, at 5%, is the highest in the region.