Sanral at the end of its tether

Johannesburg, 18 Dec 2013

The gloves are off as Sanral lashes out at Outa, saying the alliance's latest claims on the number of e-tags acquired are wild allegations based on wishful thinking.

The SA National Roads Agency (Sanral) has lashed out at the Opposition to Urban Tolling Alliance (Outa), saying the latter is making "wild assertions that can only be described as wishful thinking".

This comes in the wake of the anti-toll alliance's ongoing campaign against government's now live e-toll system, which it believes is fundamentally flawed and surrounded by mistruths.

Following Outa's recent research into the number of e-tags in use - and the alliance's claims that Sanral is misleading the public by trumpeting 900 000 tagged motorists this past week, Sanral says it is almost at the point where it will no longer respond to what it says are outrageous allegations against it.

"Outa has has made so many wild allegations against Sanral in the past. Not one of them has been found to be true by the country's courts. In its desperation to sustain what is increasingly becoming a failed campaign, Outa continues to make assertions about e-tolling which have no factual basis," says the state-owned roads agency.

E-tags at odds

Sanral contests recent research physically conducted by Outa since e-tolling went live two weeks ago, saying the alliance used a sampling method to arrive at its figures (350 000 as opposed to Sanral's 900 000) - a method the roads agency rejects.

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"At Sanral, we don't use sampling but the actual numbers of e-tags taken up through our customer service centres and bulk distribution.

"The e-tag sales figures we have released are accurate. As a state-owned entity, everything we do is subject to audit processes by the Auditor General; therefore, we have no reason to 'fabricate' figures which may later be disputed by the Auditor General."

Explaining Outa's e-tag methodology, Duvenage says: "There are 3.5 million registered cars in Gauteng, so if an off-freeway count is conducted, divide the ratio of tagged cars to total sample counted into 3.5 million, and you'll get an idea of the number of tags in use on vehicles in Gauteng.

"For the sample size to be representative, the count should be over 2 500 vehicles. For the freeway user count, divide your ratio into 2.3 million cars (ie, the average number of cars that use the Gauteng freeways a month), and you will get a good idea of the number of e-tags out there."

The following is the methodology used by Outa, provided by the alliance to ITWeb:

* Physical counting, pen and paper and a clicker to denote cars with tags while counting the total sample of vehicles.
* A freeway count was conducted with a random choice of samples during the day, at various freeway intersections, on- and off-ramps, at the traffic lights, where cars have stopped or slowed.
* Non-freeway samples were counted at shopping centre parking lots or cars parked in the road.
* Seven field workers were used - all trained on what to look for.
* Research was conducted between 5 and 13 December, after tolling had started.
* A sample size of over 7 000 vehicles was used.

Sanral questions whether Outa's sampling methods are subject to "the same rigour as our own processes", adding that e-tolling also attracts the scrutiny of rating agencies such as Moody's. "There is therefore no incentive on Sanral's part to manufacture any figures."

A total of 920 310 e-tags have been taken up thus far, says Sanral. "Approximately 600 000 of these are individual account holders and more than 200 000 are key account holders. The remainder are e-tags for 'free passage users', ie, exempted vehicles and those that have been taken up but are not yet registered."

Sanral says it will not attach much value to Outa's research, unless the sampling method is representative enough and the sources of Outa's information are known and found to be sound. "We don't know what equipment, if any, has been used, with which technical specifications and standards it complies, and where it has been installed.

"Outa's research based on fieldworkers physically counting passing vehicles is way behind Sanral's automated system. It must be emphasised that Sanral has a world-class automated system that is able to track a specific vehicle, its make and licence plate number anywhere on the highway."

Too great to ignore

Outa chair Wayne Duvenage says the notion that electronic equipment is needed to count e-tags is "a load of nonsense". He says Outa has nothing to lose, and invites anyone to do the check for themselves. "Ask a statistician if our methodology is flawed."

At the end of the day, says Duvenage, the disparity between Outa's count and Sanral's number is too great to ignore. "Even if our figures were 50% out, they [would still be] well below that of Sanral's numbers."

Last week, Sanral spokesperson Vusi Mona said 890 388 vehicle licence number/e-tags had "been committed". At the time, Outa disputed this, based on a physical count done on a sample of 2 098 cars using the freeways - of which, the alliance found 317 were tagged (15%).

Through a process of extrapolation, taking into account the total number of unique vehicles using the Gauteng freeways per month (about 2.3 million, according to Sanral), Outa calculated the maximum number of e-tags in use to be around 350 000.

Duvenage questions why the roads agency is "so protective" over information from its computer system showing the number of tagged vehicles. "Why doesn't Sanral grant an independent auditor and journalist access to their computer screen to see their figures?"

Sanral has not yet commented on whether it would be willing to share information verifying e-tag sales as Duvenage suggests.