While 3D has shaken its association with the fuzzy red-and-blue images of yesteryear, it hasn't quite been able to make the leap into the lounge, despite concerted industry efforts.
But 2011 could be a breakthrough year for 3D TV, as the technology and devices finally become mainstream enough to drive mass adoption.
Corrie Labuschagne, product and marketing manager for TVs at Samsung SA, notes that consumers now have a lot more choice when it comes to 3D TVs, as it's not just the major brands that are offering 3D-capable equipment.
We're going to see a lot change in the way consumers interact with 3D.
Corrie Labuschagne, product and marketing manager for TVs, Samsung SA
He adds that 3D content, which has always been a major hindrance, is now more widely available, with big-name studios beginning to invest in 3D movies and other content.
“From the second quarter of next year, we're going to see a lot change in the way consumers interact with 3D, with a lot of new technologies to look forward to.”
He says there's been a massive shift in the market, and while 3D TV will continue to be a focus for Samsung, it's putting more emphasis on 'smart' TVs that are Web-connected.
“The consumer who understands the technology and has the money to spend intends to buy a TV for those features,” says Labuschagne, adding that activation percentages show sets are being bought and consumers are starting to download content and interact with the devices.
According to LG's marketing and communications director, Dr Michelle Potgieter, no new technology promises to transform the world of home entertainment like 3D does. “More than just an advance, 3D could change the whole way we experience TV, adding so far unknown levels of excitement,” she says.
Potgieter adds that interest in 3D TV is constantly growing, as it is still considered a fairly new and novel technology.
Glass ceiling
While 3D is now all the rage in the film sphere, with films like Avatar raking in more than $2 billion at the box office, TV hasn't enjoyed the same take-up so far, for several notable reasons.
Adrian Drozd, principal ICT analyst at Frost & Sullivan's Telecom Europe group, notes that device pricing (including the price of glasses) and content availability remain the biggest challenges.
“More content that is conceived and recorded with 3D in mind is needed,” he explains. “Today, a significant proportion of movie content is still converted to 3D in post-production, negating some of the intrinsic worth of 3D services.”
Some films, including the wildly successful Avatar and upcoming Tron Legacy, were shot using 3D techniques, while others convert to 3D in post-production, such as the widely panned Clash of the Titans, often producing a less striking effect.
Furthermore, while epic fantasies and high-action sports games lend themselves to 3D, TV encompasses a whole range of programming not necessarily suited to this format.
Drozd says it remains to be seen whether 3D will revolutionise TV viewing, or serve more as an adjunct experience. “My personal feeling is it should be used sparingly to enhance relevant types of content such as sports and (some) movies. Applying 3D to all content genres is perhaps a step too far, certainly given current viewing constraints relating to the need to wear glasses.”
The glasses gripe is a major barrier for home viewers. While these are tolerable for short periods as part of a cinema experience, having to wear them constantly while watching at home is somewhat cumbersome.
Drozd says the need to wear glasses is one point that may not be solved any time soon. “Not only is this an added expense, but many consumers will be put off by this requirement. Perhaps the main challenge will be ensuring this becomes a standard feature in the future, rather than a novelty.”
Other problems include the way glasses connect to the TV and the issue of charging, says Labuschagne. “If a 3D TV set has three to four USB ports, that's one way of charging glasses, but for a bigger family which needs eight or 10 sets of glasses, trying to charge them all becomes difficult.”
He says new ways of connecting glasses to the TV set will make it a lot easier to maintain the connection between the two. “An innovative way to charge glasses wirelessly will follow the CES [Consumer Electronics Show] and these sorts of technology will become available,” he adds.
Labuschagne says while glasses-free technology has been available for some time, Samsung doesn't anticipate introducing TV sets with these capabilities in the near future. “The way the technology works is completely different to the way it's done now, so you can't really watch normal TV on the device - it involves projecting TV in a certain way.“
Other complaints include headaches, eye strain, and nausea. French company Technicolor recently tried to remedy this by introducing a certification system for 3D, to ensure content meets strict quality requirements.
It also plans to offer programmes to help broadcasters and content providers transform production and post-production techniques from traditional format to 3D.
Home experience
As the 3D wave continues to build, major manufacturers, including Sony, Panasonic, Samsung, LG and Toshiba, have rolled out 3D HDTVs, with some offering 2D to 3D conversion.
An ABI Research study released in October predicts 3D TV shipments will approach 50 million in 2015, after the market establishes itself and accumulates a base of content and devices.
“The 3D TV market is moving faster than expected,” says industry analyst Michael Inouye. “There was widespread scepticism that production models would be available so quickly. But by June this year, many TV manufacturers had 3D models in their line-ups.”
According to ABI Research, the popularity of 3D movies has been a primary driver. TV makers are looking for differentiation and a reason for premium pricing. With some of the top-grossing films ever in 3D, and customers willing to pay more for the experience, there's an opportunity to bring that experience to the home, the firm adds.
Potgieter believes 3D TV is a game-changer and will bring “new blood into the TV market”. It is certain that 3D is a revolutionising technology and as more uses and applications are identified, it will change the way people consume broadcast content, she notes.
Drozd says he expects falling device prices to make an impact in 2011, as more manufacturers enter the market. He adds that more pay-TV operators are likely to deploy services and that the impact of the gaming market should not be underestimated.
“With 3D titles becoming more widely available, this could boost TV sales.”
He agrees that cinematic developments have placed 3D into mainstream consciousness, with the introduction of broadcast services further boosting awareness.
However, Drozd adds: “Only when device price points fall substantially - to perhaps a 20% to 30% premium over non-3D variants - and content availability increases notably, will this become a mass market phenomenon.”
Breakthrough year?
Whether 2011 will see 3D TV succeed where it failed in 2010 remains uncertain, although more choice and variety are definitely on the cards.
“The key developments in the second half of 2010 have been the commercial deployment of 3D broadcast services and the widespread availability of 3D capable TVs,” says Drozd.
He adds that although 3D content is still not widely available, pay-TV operators such as Sky in the UK are offering an increasing range of live services and movie content.
Several broadcasters in various countries have introduced 3D programming or channels, such as ESPN and Sky 3D, which started broadcasting a variety of content across a dedicated 3D channel, in South Korea, in January.
Earlier this year, the Discovery channel, Imax and Sony announced plans to introduce a 24/7, fully programmed 3D TV network in the US, planned for release in early 2011.
British broadcaster Sky also debuted its dedicated 3D TV channel in October, with promises to bring "event TV" into the home, including big sports matches, concerts and blockbuster movies.
A recent Samsung release notes that 2010 marks the first year in which 3D technology, from a home theatre point of view, has become commercially available worldwide. It adds, however, that this must be understood as an evolution, given the technology involved is constantly changing and will take time to penetrate the local market effectively.
“Managing consumer expectations correctly now will lead to relevant purchasing decisions and the increased acceptance of new TV technology. This will ultimately increase economies of scale and decrease pricing,” it adds.
But Drozd stresses that while 2010 saw 3D finding mainstream awareness, it certainly did not achieve anything near mainstream adoption.
“With Christmas fast approaching, many retailers are heavily promoting 3D - whether consumers will be willing to pay a hefty premium for devices considering the limited range of content on offer remains to be seen.
“Expect this to be a very early adopter market in 2010.”
Potgieter says LG expects steady growth in the development of 3D TV in coming months, as viewers become more familiar with the technology. “Consumers are curious regarding the technology behind 3D TV and this is most definitely driving demand.”
Labuschagne agrees that 3D TV sales over the festive season and into 2011 look promising. “This December and the first quarter of next year we expect to sell a lot of 3D TVs. The positive thing is that the channel believes in this and wants to push the latest technology.”
He adds that 3D TVs are still seen as a premium product, with consumers falling into the top LSM group (7 to 10). “These higher-end consumers are not holding onto their cash and waiting for new products - they're keeping up to date and buying the latest 3D TVs.”
On the other hand, says Labuschagne, mass acceptance won't happen immediately. “By the middle of next year, however, you'll see the line-up of 3D-capable devices improving, and 3D TVs in the lower end of the mid-range becoming available.”
With all this activity, the living room is fast becoming a hub of on-demand, immersive, interactive multimedia, and if Labuschagne 's prediction comes true, 3D will be at the centre of this evolution.
“Moving into the next year, 3D is going to be a minimum requirement for TV sets. What will start happening in 2011 is that 3D will become the norm, the basic standard for TV.”
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