Anthropic’s upcoming listing, which could raise $100 billion or more and become the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history, has analysts split between those pointing to growth, demand and falling costs, and those warning that investors could overpay at a valuation of up to $2 trillion.
The Claude maker’s IPO – one of the most anticipated globally – has not been pencilled into diaries, and Anthropic has yet to indicate how many shares will be issued or at what offer price.
Reuters reported it could raise $100 billion or more at a potential valuation of $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion, an amount Anthropic has not confirmed.
Anthropic, founded in 2021, calls itself “first and foremost a research lab” in its prospectus, which describes Claude reaching customers through models, a platform and applications such as the Claude Code coding agent and the Claude Cowork knowledge work agent.
More than half of the Fortune 500 spent $100 000 or more with it over the 12 months to September.
Anthropic is pursuing its own data centre infrastructure and agreed in May to invest $325 million in a newly-formed entity to help mid-sized companies adopt AI.
Big, red, rising
At $100 billion or more, the listing would surpass SpaceX’s $75 billion offering in June 2026 − the current record.
The next four largest listings by deal size after SpaceX are South Korea’s SK Hynix, which is targeting $26.5 billion through a planned Nasdaq listing it announced in July 2026; Saudi Aramco, which raised $25.6 billion in 2019; Alibaba, which raised $21.8 billion in 2014; and Japan’s SoftBank Corporation, which raised $21.3 billion in 2018.
Yet, Anthropic is loss-making, with its prospectus, filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Monday, showing its operating loss narrowed from $2.14 billion a year earlier, to $693 million in the six months to June 2026.
It reported a net loss of $80.75 billion for the period, largely because of $72.39 billion in charges for revaluing its convertible notes and other financing instruments.
Year-on-year, the company’s revenue soared 1 300% to $16.29 billion in the six months to June, and it is operating cash flow positive. Annual revenue climbed from $41 million in 2023, to $386 million in 2024 before reaching $4.59 billion in 2025.
Anthropic attributes its growth to rising adoption of Claude across more business functions and more revenue per dollar spent on computing, and credits operating efficiencies for better margins and revenue per employee.
Lean machine
Its SEC filing shows that each of its 5 300 employees generated more than $6.6 million in revenue over the 12 months to September, implying about $35 billion in trailing revenue, although it leaves third-quarter revenue blank.
“We believe a close-knit team of people who share a mission can accomplish far more than its size would suggest, and we intend to keep that character as we grow,” says the Claude maker in its filing, which records about 940 staff at the end of 2024.
Enterprise intelligence company Kepler’s analysis of the numbers shows Anthropic’s “cost side has started to bend” with its largest expenditure – compute and infrastructure – falling from 201% of revenue in the first half of 2025, to 55% in the first half of 2026.
Kepler also notes that the June quarter produced $974 million in operating income, the first operating profit in any period included in the filing.
A side of chips
AG Dillon & Company’s pre-IPO valuations report puts Anthropic’s implied valuation at $1.554 trillion as of 19 October 2026, against the $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion range Reuters cites for the IPO, and 61% above the $965 billion valuation of its last primary funding round, based on secondary-market pricing.
Computing capacity has been Anthropic’s defining constraint, AG Dillon says, arguing that the company lost ground to OpenAI after running short of computing resources despite having a stronger model and product through much of 2025.
Anthropic’s own filing warns that continued growth will require substantial further investment in computing capacity.
The firm expects Anthropic to prioritise securing infrastructure over the risk of building too much capacity. “We think over-building is now the correct error to make,” it says, adding that Anthropic will continue locking up chips, power and computing capacity wherever possible.
Bare necessities
Investment research firm New Constructs says in a 6 October analysis, based on 2025 figures and leaked details of the prospectus, that a $2 trillion valuation, the top of Reuters’ range, would require revenue of about $3.6 trillion by 2035.
If growth slows to 36% a year from 2028 it estimates equity worth $1.1 trillion, 43% below $2 trillion, and at 20% a year, $144 billion, 93% below, even after assuming 1 000% revenue growth in 2026 and 100% in 2027.
New Constructs also flags revenue concentration, citing Reuters reports that nearly 25% of Anthropic’s 2025 revenue came from two undisclosed customers.
The prospectus says no customer represented more than 10% of revenue in the nine months to September, and about 79% of third-quarter revenue came from outside its top five customers, up from about 64% in the first quarter.
“Anthropic’s IPO is an unprecedented test of investor gullibility. Never, in the history of the world, have we seen an IPO valuation this high or one with as much risk,” says New Constructs.
* All figures are in dollars to accurately represent relevant figures while stripping out the rand’s volatility. Earlier this morning, the rand was trading at $16.63.
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