As the war in the Middle East rages on and oil continues its surge, having hit $119 a barrel last week, Bitcoin is up 6.5% month-on-month, and some analysts and researchers say it will continue to be an attractive asset throughout the war.
The dissenting view, however, is that gold is a substantially more physical safe haven and is only losing ground because of US inflation fears, which are the result of the war. Concerned about the potential impact of fuel price hikes on the economy, the US’ Federal Reserve last week held interest rates steady.
Yet pro-Bitcoin trader and JAN3 CEO Samson Mow, who is a frequent commentator on Bitcoin, said on X yesterday that “nothing stops this train. Not even war.”
Mow says Bitcoin is the “new gold” – the yellow metal, traditionally a safe haven, was only 0.1% higher this morning. He was also quoted by invezz, which describes itself as a team of finance experts, as saying that Bitcoin hasn’t flinched even as markets “tanked”.
“Something has shifted,” Mow adds. CoinShares head of research James Butterfill wrote on 20 March that Bitcoin remains up 10.7% since the onset of the Iran stress period, while the Stoxx 600, which represents 600 large-, mid-, and small-cap companies across 17 developed European countries, is down 7.7% and gold has declined 9.8%.
CoinDesk stated a few hours ago that Bitcoin was holding as gold crashes for a ninth consecutive day and Asian stocks fall for a third straight session, with gold down to $4 360. “Everything is selling. Bitcoin is selling the least,” the crypto monitor website says.
However, Bitcoin is trading substantially off its October 2025 record high of $126 220, trading early this morning at $68 705.
Fear stokes markets
FX Trader noted today that the war is weighing on broader crypto-currency sentiment, with liquidations of over $300 million in the last 24 hours. CoinMarketCap’s Fear and Greed Index is at 26 while any figure below 20 would indicate extreme fear, risking a steeper correction in Bitcoin and major altcoins, the website says.
Dr Azar Jammine, director and chief economist at Econometrix, notes that Bitcoin is incredibly volatile and therefore not an attractive safe haven, while gold is a tangible asset that people have trusted for thousands of years. He says “Bitcoin had fallen precipitously a month earlier when everything else was rising. It’s now showing a little resilience”.
Gold “is still almost double where it was a year ago whilst Bitcoin has nearly halved over the same period,” says Jammine. “Then again, over a five-year period Bitcoin has outperformed gold”.
Oil and gas
Gold is currently trading at $4 100, its weakest levels in four months as the ongoing Middle East conflict intensified inflation fears, while major economies face pressure to boost liquidity, including through gold sales, to offset the war’s impact, Trading Desk notes.
The yellow metal reached a record high above $4 900 an ounce in January.
Jammine adds that “gold has lost some of its appeal short term because markets are now expecting global interest rates to rise whereas prior to the war, they had been expecting them to fall when oil prices were still only $60 a barrel”. At its most recent meeting, the Federal Reserve held interest rates.
Christo de Wit, South Africa country manager at Luno, says that gold’s recent decline in value isn’t “necessarily a failure of its safe haven role” but rather a reflection of inflation fears due to higher oil prices as a result of Operation Epic Fury, which began on 28 February.
War and crypto
An October 2025 study published in the International Review of Economics & Finance, which examined cryptocurrency trends during COVID-19, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the Israel-Palestine conflict, found Bitcoin appealing “as a digital safe haven”. It adds that “this trend persists during subsequent crises, suggesting a strategic shift towards cryptocurrencies as diversification tools.”
Weex noted in a mid-March blog that the first phase of a war impact cycle typically involves a price correction of between 5% and 15%. Crypto is often sold first because it is seen as higher risk and trades 24/7, Weex says. Access to cash becomes critical in the early stages of conflict, with investors selling crypto to cover immediate expenses or prepare for banking disruptions, it adds.
This is born out by a 9 March post on IG Markets, which notes that the escalation of the Middle East conflict provoked another sell-off in Bitcoin as of that date.
After the initial sell-off a second phase often emerges, according to Weex. “In regions where the traditional banking infrastructure is damaged, frozen, or restricted by government capital controls, cryptocurrency provides a critical alternative for borderless transactions,” it said.
Before the war
Two months before the conflict, IG Markets noted that the end of 2025 was rough for Bitcoin – over $1.2 trillion in crypto market value gone in six weeks, with Bitcoin slipping below $82 000, it said.
IG Markets says “the panic’s faded. What’s left is tighter, more focused. Price is recovering, but slowly. This time around, the engine underneath looks stronger… The outlook isn’t unanimous, but most serious forecasts now sit in the $120 000 to $170 000 range,” IG Markets said.
Grayscale said in December it expects 2026 to accelerate structural shifts in digital asset investing, underpinned by two major themes: macro demand for alternative stores of value and improved regulatory clarity.
“The question is whether Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a scarce asset that doesn’t rely on the US dollar, particularly amid rising oil prices and new inflation fears. Or whether this is simply two markets correcting in separate directions. We don’t think that question has a definitive answer yet,” de Wit says.
*All figures have been stated in dollars to strip out some of the current volatility in the markets. The rand is currently worth R17.16 against the dollar.
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