As the political machinery ramps up for May's general elections, commentators are calling for a stable hand to guide the Department of Communications as it seeks to get several much-delayed projects off the ground.
Incumbent minister Yunus Carrim, who has only been in the post since the middle of last year, has vowed to fix the department, but has also hinted that he does not expect to be in the post after the elections. Analyst firm Nomura has indicated that portfolio changes are on the cards after the elections.
Commentators say a steady hand is needed at the department, which is currently tackling several large projects. Among those named as possible candidates include public service and administration minister Lindiwe Sisulu; president Jacob Zuma's adviser on international relations Lindiwe Zulu; or an extended tenure for Carrim.
The department has been rocked in recent years by ever-changing ministers, with outgoing heads leaving under clouds of controversy. Carrim's predecessor, Dina Pule, accomplished very little under her tenure and was eventually sacked after months of controversy that left question marks hanging over Pule's integrity, and the public baying for her blood.
Carrim is the fourth communications minister in about as many years. Pule took over from Roy Padayachee in October 2011, after he was moved to the Department of Public Service and Administration.
Padayachee became communications minister in November 2010, taking over from Siphiwe Nyanda, who was removed from the post after a Cabinet shuffle.
Making strides
ICT veteran Adrian Schofield says much depends on the margin with which the African National Congress wins the vote. He points out that, if it drops, the leadership will come under pressure, which will affect ministerial posts across the board.
Schofield says if the ANC is forced to examine itself, those who have delivered - such as Carrim - may well stay on. He notes the current minister has done quite a bit in a short space of time, and it will be a challenge to find potential new ministerial performers.
BMI-Tecknowledge MD Denis Smit would like to see Carrim stay in the post. He points out the current minister pulled off three "big" things before the end of last year.
Just before the festive break, Carrim submitted the Broadband Policy, Broadcasting Digital Migration plan and the draft National Integrated ICT Policy to Cabinet. "Those are pretty major accomplishments," says Smit.
Carrim has also devised a six-tier strategy to improve the department's performance and public image, which he plans to implement before the elections. The aims of the strategy include filling vacant posts with skilled individuals, defragmenting the ICT sector, improving service delivery and finalising the ICT Policy Review.
The department is also reviewing its Annual Performance Plan (APP) and setting "realistic and realisable targets", Carrim has said. In August, the new minister said certain key aspects of the APP would be prioritised, and where possible, fast-tracked "to the extent possible in difficult circumstances".
Smit says based on his achievements, there is a good chance Carrim will be back. He notes the department has displaced much more energy since his appointment, and while his report card is unproven, the minister has delivered.
Keep it stable
However, says Smit: "Who knows about the machinations of politics?" He notes the post is a difficult one because broadband is not as simple as building roads, and it is probably one of the most difficult technological departments to run.
Democratic Alliance shadow communications minister Marian Shinn says while no names spring to mind, whoever takes over the post must understand the importance of ICT to economic growth, job creation and international competition.
Shinn adds she would rather Carrim stayed on for longevity reasons to provide stability. Carrim himself has labelled the DOC as "relatively weak and divided". He has said there was "an inclination among the senior managers to settle old scores and create new spaces for influence in the current period".
Ovum analyst Richard Hurst says although the nature of politics is that ministers keep "chopping and changing", someone needs to take hold of the department and drive it. He adds several names were cited before Carrim's appointment, including Zulu.
Other possible candidates named by the Sunday Independent last February - before Pule's departure - included deputy communications minister Stella Ndabeni, deputy minister in the Presidency Obed Bapela (who was the deputy minister to late Padayachee when he served as communications minister), as well as Sisulu.
Hurst says Sisulu is a "real firecracker" who gets things done and is a potential head for the department. He notes she tackled the Department of Defence head on while in that portfolio.
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