The opening weeks of 2026 have already sent a clear and compelling signal about what kind of year lies ahead for the crypto market.
This is according to South African-based crypto-currency players, which say market sentiment is notably stronger this year, driven by renewed investor interest, improving regulatory clarity, and a growing appetite for digital assets.
Christo de Wit, country manager at Luno, notes that crypto markets have broadly rallied, with many assets showing price jumps of more than 10% over seven days.
He points out that Bitcoin climbed above $95 000 (approximately R1.7 million) for the first time since November, while XRP led the charge with gains of around 27%.
“The retraction in recent days signals that the crypto market is testing the bounds of this range,” says De Wit.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $87 842 (R1.4 million).
According to De Wit, more significant is Morgan Stanley's announcement that it has filed for Solana and Bitcoin electronic traded funds (ETFs).
He explains that after sitting on the sidelines since the launch of the first US crypto ETF in January 2024, the banking giant’s entry suggests substantial untapped institutional demand. Despite BlackRock’s IBIT becoming the fastest ETF in history to reach $80 billion in assets under management, Morgan Stanley's proprietary wealth channels have identified enough commercial viability for a branded product, he adds.
“This early momentum confirms that the fundamental question has shifted from whether crypto will integrate with traditional finance, to how quickly this integration will accelerate. 2026 could be the year digital assets transition from alternative investments to essential financial infrastructure.”
Bull versus swan
David Porter, general manager at AltCoinTrader, says the late-2025 market correction has already priced in much of the bearish global growth sentiment, resulting in an asymmetric risk-reward outlook for 2026.
“Any positive shift in global liquidity, particularly a clear path for US interest rate cuts, is likely to act as a significant catalyst,” says Porter.
“The continued accumulation by ETFs and the strong fundamental momentum could likely drive a resumption of the bull cycle. In this case, barring any black-swan event like an extreme global recession, I expect Bitcoin to resume its long-term upward trajectory, towards new all-time highs driven by fresh retail and institutional capital returning to the market.”
For Imraan Moola, chief investment officer at Ovex, two distinct schools of thought are emerging around Bitcoin’s direction in 2026.
He notes that one camp continues to subscribe to the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle, which suggests prices rise for three years before declining in the fourth. Adherents to this view expect the pattern to repeat, pointing to downside risk and a potential bear market for much of the year.
The second camp, however, argues that increasing institutional participation and the maturation of the crypto industry have weakened – or even invalidated – the four-year cycle, he says. Instead, Moola notes, they believe Bitcoin’s price trajectory will be shaped by broader macro-economic and fundamental factors, including the US interest-rate cycle, the possible return of quantitative easing, and how these forces influence risk assets.
Moola aligns more closely with this latter view, noting that several indicators already suggest the historical cycle is breaking down. While this does not imply a guaranteed price rally, he says Bitcoin’s direction will increasingly be driven by macro variables rather than fixed historical patterns.
Following the recent pullback, Moola remains positive on Bitcoin’s outlook and believes the greater risk to prices at current levels is to the upside.
Local integration revs up
Luno’s De Wit adds that the institutional adoption wave that gained momentum in 2025 shows no signs of slowing. BlackRock's IBIT Bitcoin ETF became the third-highest revenue-generating fund in the asset manager's portfolio of over 1 000 ETFs in under two years.
BlackRock also tokenised US bonds on Ethereum, while banks explored issuing their own stablecoins, he adds.
“Locally, integration of crypto into traditional banking channels is accelerating. Following Discovery Bank’s pioneering move to integrate crypto trading directly into its mobile banking application through its partnership with Luno, other financial institutions are exploring similar offerings. JSE-listed Africa Bitcoin Corporation added Bitcoin to its balance sheet, likely leading other listed companies to evaluate similar moves.”
He also points out that South Africa's removal from the Financial Action Task Force grey list in October 2025 has positioned the country favourably for continued industry growth.
“A critical issue for 2026 is whether South Africa will update its regulatory framework on exchange controls. Classifying digital assets like Bitcoin as 'onshore' when held on licensed local platforms could unlock institutional investment and potentially generate R500 million in tax revenue.”
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