Geopolitical events throughout 2025 – such as US president Donald Trump’s election win and the subsequent implementation of trade tariffs – may have been market-moving catalysts, but their impact on Bitcoin as an investment play hasn’t been binary.
Bitcoin climbed to a record high of about $126 000 (R2.1 million at this morning’s exchange rate of R16.75 to the dollar) in early October 2025, before sliding to a low of about $85 000 (R1.4 million) in late November, and is ending the year at around $87 254 (R1.46 million).
In some instances – such as around mid-October – Bitcoin moved with the market, in this instance correcting to below $110 000 (R1.8 million) when Trump announced new tariffs on Chinese imports and threatened export controls on critical software amid his political manoeuvring to secure access to rare earth minerals.
That sell-down has been described as the largest liquidation in crypto history, as more than $19 million worth of the crypto-currency was sold off.
Christo de Wit, SA country manager at Luno, says Bitcoin increasingly behaves like other risk assets during macro-economic uncertainty despite its “digital gold” narrative.
Yet, De Wit points out that this correction was more controlled than previous cycles. “Institutional holders – pension funds, asset managers, corporate treasuries – don’t panic-sell like retail speculators,” he says.
Importantly, De Wit says, Bitcoin’s volatility itself has evolved in character, and it is responding to the same systemic drivers as traditional financial markets. “Bitcoin hasn’t become boring – its volatility patterns have simply evolved,” he notes.
Sweet 16
A contrasting view is taken by US investor and commentator Jordi Visser, who says Bitcoin has become “boring” because the “market has finally matured to the point where early holders can exit significant positions without causing chaos”.
Visser says that Bitcoin’s price shifts are not coupled with moves into riskier assets in response to changing market conditions. “For years, you could predict Bitcoin’s direction by watching the Nasdaq. That correlation has broken down recently, since December 2024. Completely,” he states.
Bitcoin was launched in 2009 when its creator, known as Satoshi Nakamoto, mined the first block of the blockchain, making the software public and creating the network for peer-to-peer digital cash.
The crypto world has matured and now offers liquidity and market depth, enabling early adopters to sell out and potential new investors to move in, says Visser, who heads AI Macro Nexus Research for 22V.
“It proved itself to the point where the most conservative financial institutions in the world are buying it,” Visser adds.
Visser says that “Bitcoin will probably never again have the radical energy it had in its early years. The days of 100x returns in a single year are likely over. The volatility that created life-changing wealth will moderate as ownership becomes more distributed.”
Winners and losers
Deon Gouws, chief investment officer at Credo, says there has been consistent selling by a few large holders, or whales, who have been invested for many years and therefore made a lot of money. This, he says, is simply a liquidity event/moment for them.
“On the other hand, there has also been solid demand from new kinds of crypto investors, including institutions as well as the public,” Gouws says.
Crypto bears will point to the fact that Bitcoin is trading way below its all-time high despite the fresh demand, fuelling their belief that there are probably more losses to come, Gouws says. “There are many experienced investors who still think that the Bitcoin price can go to zero,” he says.
Crypto bulls will argue that the two sides of the equation have been relatively “in balance” in the recent past, which is why the trading environment has been relatively stable, Gouws adds. Those same bulls believe that selling is likely to dry up at some point, while the buying side has much more upward potential going forward, he notes.
In the meantime, investing.com analyst Anna Radomska says the bears are in control and, unless the price moves back to recent support levels, the market is following a downside path.
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