In 2010, there will be a shift in the types of attacks on users, from attacks via Web sites and applications, towards attacks originating from file-sharing networks, says Kasperky Lab.
It adds that in 2009, a series of mass malware epidemics were “supported” by malicious files that are spread via torrent portals. “This method has been used to spread notorious threats such as TDSS and Virut, as well as the first backdoor for Mac OS X. In 2010, Kaspersky Lab expects to see a significant increase in these types of incidents on P2P networks.”
Cyber criminals will continue to vie for traffic, as they are making an increasing effort to legalise their businesses and there are lots of ways to earn money online using the vast amount of traffic that can be generated by botnets. “Today, it is mostly black-market services that compete to make use of botnet traffic.”
Looking forward, the company predicts the emergence of more "grey" schemes in the botnet services market. It describes these as so-called "partner programmes" that enable botnet owners to profit from schemes such as sending spam, performing DoS attacks, or distributing malware, without committing an explicit crime per se.
Good and bad
security companies and law enforcement agencies. This makes it increasingly difficult to create and distribute fake anti-virus programs.”
Kaspersky says 2010 will also see malware becoming far more sophisticated, resulting in many anti-virus programs being slow to treat infected computers due to advanced file infection methods and rootkit technologies.
Alex Gostev, director of Kaspersky Lab's Global Research & Analysis Team, says: “IT security companies will respond by developing even more complex protection tools. However, the malicious programs capable of bypassing these measures will remain more or less immune to anti-virus programs for some time.”
When it comes to attacks on Web services, Google Wave appears to be making all the waves this year so far, adds Gostev. “Attacks on this service will no doubt follow the usual pattern: first, the sending of spam, followed by phishing attacks, then the exploiting of vulnerabilities and the spreading of malware.”
Threats on the move
He notes that although the scheduled release of the network-based Chrome operating system is a newsworthy event, Kaspersky Lab does not anticipate much interest in this platform from cyber criminals.
iPhone and Android are likely to have a difficult time in 2010, says Kaspersky. 2009 saw the first malicious programs for these mobile platforms, a sure sign that they have aroused the interest of cyber criminals.
Only iPhone users with jail-broken devices are at risk, but the same cannot be said for Android users, all of whom all vulnerable to attack, says the company. “The increasing popularity of mobile phones running the Android OS in China combined with a lack of effective checks to ensure third-party software applications are secure will lead to a number of high profile malware outbreaks.”
The major cause of epidemics will remain the detection of new vulnerabilities. “These vulnerabilities will be detected in both software developed by third parties, such as Adobe or Apple, and in Windows 7, the new operating system that has just entered the market.”
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