Some R247 711 has been wagered on Johannesburg’s next mayor on Betmatch, with Helen Zille odds-on to win.
This, as the betting exchange clashes with the South African Bookmakers’ Association (SABA) over calls for tighter regulation of prediction markets.
Betmatch’s current odds imply a roughly 60% to 70% chance of Zille becoming mayor, compared with about 15% to 27% for the ANC’s Frank Chikane. Former Gauteng premier David Makhura, ActionSA leader Herman Mashaba, the ANC’s Loyiso Masuku and Kenny Kunene from the Patriotic Alliance are also listed on the exchange.
SABA wants prediction markets, such as Betmatch, barred from operating until a dedicated regulatory framework is in place, arguing that existing gambling legislation does not adequately address the risks associated with these products.
The association argues that betting exchanges merely match bets between customers, rather than taking bets themselves, and therefore do not qualify as bookmakers under existing gambling legislation.
Responding to SABA’s late-July position paper, Betmatch says the proposed restrictions would prevent licensed local exchanges from competing with offshore platforms that continue accepting bets from South Africans.
Ballots and bets
SABA is also concerned about the integrity of political prediction markets, arguing that allowing people to profit from elections, public appointments and government decisions could create financial incentives to influence those outcomes.
“Unlike sports integrity frameworks, South Africa presently lacks any equivalent monitoring system capable of detecting or preventing manipulation linked to prediction market activity,” says SABA CEO Sean Coleman in the paper.
Zille, a former DA leader who stepped away from frontline politics in 2019 but remained active in the party’s leadership, has returned to the electoral fray as its Johannesburg mayoral candidate. She is pitching herself as the experienced fix-it candidate, with a campaign focused on water cuts, power cuts, potholes, billing chaos, crime and collapsing infrastructure.
According to the Centre for Development and Enterprise, Johannesburg owes creditors R25.2 billion but has just R3.9 billion in cash and cash equivalents. The city’s water infrastructure renewal backlog is at R26.6 billion, with replacing its ageing pipe network at the current pace is expected to take almost two centuries, the centre says.
The hotly-contested mayoral race ahead of the November elections has drawn candidates from across the political spectrum. The ANC has shortlisted incumbent mayor Dada Morero, his deputy Loyiso Masuku and Frank Chikane.
Licence to bet
SABA questions the North West Gambling Board’s decision to issue betting exchange licences, arguing that existing legislation does not expressly authorise them and that provincial regulators may exercise only powers specifically granted by law.
The betting exchange maintains that its North West Gambling Board licence already permits it to offer betting on uncertain future events, such as who will become Johannesburg’s next mayor.
“The demand clearly exists. The only question is whether it is met by operators subject to South African law, or by offshore platforms accountable to no one here,” says Betmatch CEO Nick French.
“Peer-to-peer betting on a contingency is precisely what a Bookmaker Exchange licence authorises, and we already offer markets of this kind lawfully and under supervision on our platform.”
House rules
Betmatch has submitted draft rules governing prediction markets to the North West Gambling Board, adapted from Gibraltar’s Prediction Market Regulations 2026. The proposed framework provides for individual betting contract approval, prohibited subjects, integrity monitoring and client-money protection.
Its proposals also include position limits, addressing concerns about manipulation and allowing the provincial regulator to determine which political and other events may be offered for betting.
SABA identifies potential money-laundering risks arising from peer-to-peer transactions, cross-border payments and crypto-assets, alongside concerns about consumer protection and the taxation of offshore gambling revenue.
“Under a licensed regime, a political market exists only if the regulator allows it. On an offshore platform, it exists whether South Africa likes it or not,” Betmatch says in its response to SABA.
Turning the screws
Despite their disagreement over licensing, Betmatch and SABA agree on the need to tackle illegal offshore operators. Betmatch wants gambling regulators to use technology, including geoblocking and payment restrictions, to prevent unlicensed platforms from accepting bets from South Africans on political, economic and other events.
Betmatch cites estimates that illegal operators account for about 62% of South Africa’s online gross gambling revenue, with around 16 million South Africans having interacted with illegal platforms. SABA estimates that illegal operators are diverting more than R50 billion in gross gambling revenue offshore annually.
The exchange’s first prong against illegal operators is to notify the Payments Association of South Africa and acquiring banks of gambling-related payment flows to unlicensed operators, copying in the Financial Intelligence Centre. This would target the movement of money rather than relying solely on blocking access to websites.
“Spain and France did not rely on goodwill,” says French. “They put a formal marker down, and when access continued, they escalated to enforced blocking. The submissions we have made to the board follow the same path, starting where it bites quickest in South Africa – the payment rails.”
The second proposed intervention is issuing formal regulatory notices requesting that offshore operators geoblock South African internet protocol addresses and restrict rand-denominated payment channels.
Here’s proof
Betmatch also wants government to engage Apple, Google and Meta to have unlicensed gambling applications removed from South African app stores and advertising targeting local consumers withdrawn. It wants the matter referred to the National Gambling Board and the forum of provincial gambling regulators for a coordinated national approach.
The exchange has offered to provide the North West Gambling Board with evidence of offshore platforms being accessible from South African IP addresses, local deposit and withdrawal channels, advertising directed at South Africans and betting volumes linked to domestic events.
“The real divide in South African gambling is not between one product and another. It is between operators who submit to South African law and those who do not. We stand on the lawful side of that divide, and we are backing the regulator with the tools to enforce it,” says French.
Share
