Electric vehicles (EVs) could become economically competitive across large parts of Africa well before 2040, driven by falling technology costs and the rise of solar-powered, off-grid charging infrastructure.
This is according to new research led by research institute ETH Zurich and the Paul Scherrer Institute , in collaboration with African researchers from Makerere University, the University of Port Harcourt and Stellenbosch University.
The study suggests that EV adoption on the continent may accelerate faster than previously assumed — provided charging infrastructure is designed around local energy realities.
This comes as Africa’s vehicle fleet is expected to double by 2050, the fastest growth rate globally. The question facing policymakers and industry is no longer whether mobility will expand, but what technologies will underpin that growth, it finds.
Off-grid solar-powered solutions will make EV charging possible even in places with no or unreliable electrical grids.
EVs, paired with solar-powered off-grid charging solutions, could become cost-effective in many African countries well before 2040, it says.
“Many models have assumed that combustion engine vehicles will continue to dominate in Africa through mid-century,” says lead author Bessie Noll, senior researcher in the Energy and Technology Policy Group at ETH Zurich. “Our findings show that, under certain conditions, e-mobility is feasible sooner than many people think.”
EVs are no longer considered niche oddities globally; instead, adoption has become mainstream as more automotive firms commit to phasing out internal combustion engine vehicles.
Solar charging reshapes cost
A key factor influencing EV affordability in Africa is charging, according to the study. In many regions, grid electricity is unreliable or altogether absent, prompting the study researchers to model an alternative pathway.
The team analysed 52 African countries and more than 2 000 locations, examining a scenario in which EVs are charged using dedicated solar photovoltaic systems paired with stationary batteries and operated independently of the grid. The results show that such decentralised systems can be both cost-effective and reliable, according to the study.
Rapid decline in the cost of solar power and battery storage, combined with the growing availability of lower-priced EV models — particularly from China — are improving the economics.
Electric two- and three-wheelers already stand out as the most financially attractive option in many African markets.
“We wanted to know what would happen if the charging system were designed specifically for daily demand,” says Christian Moretti, research scientist at PSI. “Even we were surprised by the results: these systems are significantly cheaper than is often assumed, and in many contexts, they are even more reliable than the existing electrical grid.”
The modelling shows that a compact solar installation can support a small electric car travelling about 50km a day, with charging accounting for only a minor share of total vehicle ownership costs.
SA infrastructure-led but cost-constrained
Global EV sales grew 20% last year, increasing to 2.1 million sales globally, according to consultancy Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. However, the report notes growth is likely to lose pace in 2026, as a slowdown in China and a relaxation of electrification targets worldwide led in December to the smallest sales increase since February 2024.
South Africa remains Africa’s most advanced EV market in terms of passenger vehicles, charging infrastructure and automotive industry depth.
Public charging networks are concentrated in major metros such as Gauteng, Cape Town and Durban, while global and Chinese automakers are expanding local EV offerings, according to research by GreenCape and the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition.
However, local adoption has been slower than expected, largely due to high upfront vehicle prices, limited consumer incentives and policy uncertainty. While South Africa benefits from stronger financing conditions than many African peers, EVs still struggle to compete with internal combustion vehicles on sticker price alone, it notes.
South Africa’s EV transition is therefore shaped less by energy access constraints and more by fiscal policy, industrial strategy and consumer affordability, placing it at a different point on the adoption curve compared to many other African markets.
EV adoption in South Africa is growing, but sales and registration figures are still emerging and incomplete.
There are an estimated 15 300 EVs registered in 2025 (including fully electric models) on South African roads — nearly doubling from 2024 figures, according to the Automotive Business Council.
Elsewhere in Africa, EV adoption is following more varied and often more pragmatic paths.
In North Africa, countries such as Morocco have taken an industrial-led approach, positioning themselves as EV and component manufacturing hubs while also expanding domestic charging infrastructure, according to the Global EV Outlook 2025.
This has resulted in faster growth in EV numbers, supported by export-oriented policies and renewable energy investment.
Morocco’s EV fleet is approximately 10 000 vehicles, while Tanzania and Ethiopia have an estimated 5 000 to 7 000 EVs, notes the EV Outlook.
In East Africa, the economics are strongest in commercial mobility. Kenya, Rwanda and Tanzania have seen rapid uptake of electric motorcycles and three-wheelers, driven by lower operating costs, battery-swapping models and targeted tax exemptions, it says.
These markets demonstrate how EVs can become economical even in low-income settings when deployment focuses on high-utilisation vehicles.
West African markets such as Ghana and Nigeria illustrate yet another model. Ghana has encouraged adoption through import duty waivers, while Nigeria’s removal of fuel subsidies has sharpened the economic case for electric alternatives, particularly for commercial fleets.
Ghana has the highest estimated EV numbers in West Africa, with around 15 000 EVs, and growing uptake of electric two- and three-wheelers.
Grid instability remains a constraint, but off-grid solar charging may be the key to EV market growth, notes the Global EV Outlook 2025
“Ethiopia represents a more policy-driven outlier. With abundant renewable power and a ban on new internal combustion vehicle imports, the country is pushing rapid electrification, supported by tax exemptions and local assembly initiatives — even as infrastructure challenges persist,” it points out.
Financing remains barrier
Despite favourable technology trends, the ETH Zurich study identifies financing — not engineering — as the biggest obstacle to EV adoption in Africa.
In countries with lower borrowing costs and more stable financial systems, such as Botswana and South Africa, EVs could reach cost competitiveness sooner. In markets with high interest rates, including parts of West and Central Africa, adoption is likely to lag despite strong long-term economics.
“Africa is not a single, uniform market,” adds Noll. “The framework conditions vary enormously, as does the point at which e-mobility makes sense financially.”
The researchers argue that reducing financing costs through government guarantees, innovative ownership models or international support could dramatically accelerate uptake.
They also point to potential economic benefits, including local vehicle assembly, service ecosystems and job creation across EV value chains.
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