South Africa is leading Africa’s mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) market as banking, retail and digital businesses increasingly embed mobile connectivity into their existing customer ecosystems.
This is according to the newly-published 2026 Africa MVNO report by Africa Analysis, which notes the country had approximately 4.4 million active MVNO SIMs at the end of 2025, up about 43% during the year. The research firm forecasts this could rise to about 14.4 million by 2030.
It says Africa’s MVNO market is forecast to grow from approximately 7.9 million subscribers in 2025, to 39.6 million by 2030.
The report assesses 54 African markets and identifies 21 as having high or very high MVNO potential. However, only nine markets currently have active MVNO operations, while 83% of the markets assessed have no active MVNO market.
Andre Wills, managing director of Africa Analysis, tells ITWeb via e-mail that South Africa’s lead was the result of a combination of regulatory openness, mature wholesale infrastructure, strong consumer brands and a developed digital economy.
He explains that the market has also had more time than most African countries to establish an MVNO ecosystem. Cell C pioneered wholesale access, while MTN has subsequently expanded its MVNO hosting activities.
Wills notes that SA also has an established mobile virtual network enabler (MVNE) ecosystem, reducing the technical and operational barriers to launching an MVNO.
“The key differentiator is therefore not simply regulation: South Africa has developed the commercial ecosystem required to convert MVNO licensing into sustainable subscriber growth,” Wills says.
According to Africa Analysis, the country’s MVNO growth is increasingly being driven by banks, retailers and digital businesses that already have large customer bases, trusted brands and established distribution channels.
Rather than selling mobile connectivity as a standalone telecommunications product, these businesses are using it as part of broader banking, loyalty, retail and digital-service ecosystems.
Capitec Connect is currently the market leader, with Africa Analysis estimating it had approximately 1.9 million subscribers at the end of 2025, representing around 41% of the South African MVNO market.
FNB Connect is another major player and one of the pioneers of the banking-led MVNO model. Standard Bank Connect and Nedbank Connect represent the next tier of banking-led operators, says the market research company.
It adds that retail and digital MVNOs associated with Shoprite, Pick n Pay, Mr Price and Melon Mobile remain important, but have not yet achieved the scale of the leading banking MVNOs.
Wills says the South African experience shows the strongest model is increasingly the “embedded MVNO”, where connectivity supports an existing financial, retail or digital customer relationship.
Africa’s wider MVNO opportunity
Africa’s overall MVNO market is entering a new phase, but Wills cautions that the continent should not be viewed as a single market.
“Africa does not lack mobile scale. The continent already has close to 1.5 billion mobile subscriptions. The more important question is whether individual markets have the regulatory framework, wholesale economics, customer-switching mechanisms and digital infrastructure required to turn that scale into a sustainable MVNO opportunity.”
Africa Analysis expects SA, Nigeria, Kenya and Uganda to account for 85% of the continent’s MVNO subscriber base by 2030.
The report identifies 14 markets where MVNOs are permitted, or licences have been issued but no operational MVNO market exists.
These markets collectively represent approximately 407 million mobile subscriptions, highlighting the gap between regulatory permission and commercial viability.
Nigeria’s growth potential
Africa Analysis says Nigeria is one of the markets with substantial potential, but commercial deployment has been slower than the number of licences suggests.
The Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) has issued more than 40 MVNO licences. However, Vitel Wireless is currently the most significant operational player.
Wills says Vitel became the first Nigerian MVNO to receive its own 0712 number range, completed interconnection with the major MNOs during 2025 and commercially launched in October 2025, with network access supported by MTN Nigeria.
He adds that Lebara Nigeria is among the more prominent prospective entrants. It conducted a soft launch in March 2026 but had not moved into full commercial operation by June, according to Wills.
“Nigeria has substantially greater theoretical MVNO potential than its current subscriber base suggests, but it still needs to convert licences into commercially viable networks.”
The major challenges have shifted from licensing to execution, with wholesale pricing, host-network agreements, technical integration and sufficient retail margins remaining critical issues.
The NCC has responded by developing additional business rules during 2026 aimed at improving negotiations between MNOs and MVNOs, Wills explains.
Formidable competitors
MVNOs can compete through customer segmentation, pricing, digital experiences and the strength of their brands, but they remain dependent on MNOs for network access, service quality and wholesale economics, Wills notes.
He states there is also an important African-market complication: many major MNOs have developed extensive mobile-money and digital-financial-services businesses.
In markets such as Kenya, Ghana, Tanzania and Uganda, mobile money has made MNOs part of customers’ everyday financial ecosystems. Operators can combine connectivity, payments, wallets, lending, merchant services and loyalty propositions.
“As a result, African MVNOs are often competing not simply against a telecom operator, but against an integrated telecom-financial-services platform with scale, distribution, customer data and an established payments ecosystem.”
This raises the bar for banks and fintech firms entering mobile, Wills says, adding that successful MVNOs need to differentiate through better customer economics, banking integration, loyalty, credit, digital experience, niche segmentation or cross-product rewards.
“The competitive question is therefore not whether an MVNO can build a better mobile network than an MNO. It is whether the MVNO can create more value from the customer relationship than an MNO that increasingly combines connectivity with financial and digital services.”
Four growth factors
Africa Analysis identifies four factors that will determine whether MVNO markets become commercially investable: mobile number portability and switching, licensing, wholesale access and digital readiness.
It says effective, low-friction number portability will make it easier for customers to switch providers, while clear licensing categories and executable processes are needed to encourage new entrants.
Wholesale economics could prove decisive. MVNOs need sustainable pricing, reference offers, service levels and, where possible, multiple host-network options, it adds.
According to the firm, digital readiness is also becoming increasingly important as 4G and 5G adoption grows, eSIM availability expands, smartphones become more affordable and digital onboarding improves.
The report also distinguishes true MVNOs from branded resellers and on-billers. Africa Analysis defines true MVNOs as operators that control the customer proposition, participate meaningfully in service and product development, and purchase wholesale mobile-network access.
Wills says the market is moving from price-led MVNOs towards propositions where connectivity is embedded in banking, retail, insurance and digital ecosystems.
“Existing distribution is becoming a major advantage because banks, retailers and digital platforms can enter mobile with established customer bases, apps, physical distribution and billing relationships.”
According to Wills, MVNEs will also play a growing role by reducing the technical complexity, capital requirements and time-to-market associated with launching an MVNO.
Ultimately, he says subscriber numbers alone should not define success.
“The focus should increasingly be on subscriber quality, engagement and ecosystem value, not only SIM volumes.”
The next phase of Africa’s MVNO growth is therefore likely to be selective, with South Africa demonstrating what is possible when regulation, wholesale access, enablement infrastructure and strong consumer brands align, he notes.
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