The future is Java

ITWeb`s Software Skills 2004 Survey set out to identify the key trends in the software development sector and polled both the software developer community and the business managers of local software operations.

The survey showed that the responsibility for skills development and training within companies falls on the shoulders of the IT manager (30%) or the human resources manager (19%), while funding for these initiatives comes mainly from departmental (41%) or overall IT (29%) budgets.

For the implementation of software training, more than half of the respondents (55%) agreed that a combination of PC-based and instructor-led format was the best method - a trend IBM Software technical sales manager Dion Harvey says is to be expected. "That is definitely the way to go. Both e-learning and instructor-led training have their pros and cons, but together they are complementary."

Similarly, a combination of outsourced and in-house training is seen as the most popular method for handling a company`s training requirements. However, companies opting for "one or the other" mostly prefer in-house training (25% compared to 16% for outsourcing), a finding that Software Futures MD Brian Harding says is noteworthy.

"Typically, training is a highly specialised area. To offer it in-house requires significant infrastructure and time. If that is becoming the trend, it would be very surprising."

More than half of those polled (58%) said they actively participate in software development, with the majority involved in development (45%) and architecture (13%). Testing and design were the least reported.

While it comes as no surprise that development is ubiquitous, Harvey says many interesting developments are taking place in architecture. "It is growing in importance and significance to the process as a whole, and I can vouch for that from what I have seen here [at IBM Software]."

C with 36% and Cobol with 21% are the most prevalent languages on the legacy side, but a fairly large group opted for "other" legacy languages. "Basically most of the languages that were successful in their time are still being used," comments Harding.

When asked about previous languages worked on, 13% mentioned Cobol, a development which could indicate that Cobol`s popularity is waning.

"We should see Cobol taking more of a backseat in future," says Harding. "We have been saying that Cobol should start fading away for some time now, but somehow it`s still here. That said, I think if you track its progression you will see it is diminishing."

Just over 2% of respondents are involved in Natural/Adabas, while 1.5% reported working with Assembler.

On the mainstream side, Java (21%), Visual Basic (15%) and C# are the languages most used by respondents. According to Harvey, Java and C# (13%) are likely to be two of the dominant languages in the market for a while to come.

"I think they are the way of the future. Java is an environment that provides the high-end performance and functionality that companies want. From my perspective, Java will probably make around 50% of the new application developments. Some of it will be open source, and some from vendors. We will, of course, see many people moving over to C# as well."

Of languages that proved less popular among respondents, the presence of C++ is somewhat of a surprise, says Harvey, adding that the popularity of Java may have played a part. "I think there is a natural progression from C++ to Java. So you could say that Java`s increased prevalence is linked to the fading out of C++."

Among mainstream languages, by far the most popular is Java, with 27% of respondents saying they`ll be using it in the future, followed by C# (25%) and VB .Net (14%).

Eighty percent of Java developers believe Java is the language of the future, while 34% of C# developers also plan to stick to their current language of choice.

C is still the most popular option for the future on the legacy side. Thirteen percent of respondents intend to choose C as their next language.

The reason for this longevity could be attributed to the nature of the language. "C is an excellent language for low-end, functional stuff, the nuts and bolts if you like. Nothing has really replaced it in that area, so it is still popular," says Harvey.

Cobol developers who plan to develop in a different language in the future are most likely to switch to Java (33%) or C# (23%).

On the topic of software development processes, an internally developed process (22%) proved to be the most popular, with Rational Unified Process (16%) next in line, while 11% admitted to having none in place.

Harding believes this is a worrying finding, adding that software development must become a more professional industry. "We need to set standards and make it more predictable. In the future, I think we will see fewer companies opting not to have any processes in place."

As might be expected, IT diplomas (25%) are more popular than degrees (17%) among respondents. Nearly 7% said they had achieved a Masters degree.

Such is the prevalence of IT diplomas that they have become almost a basic requirement in the industry, says Susan Haiden, client development manager for recruitment company Insource.

"The South African ICT industry has always had fewer university graduates than diplomas among its ranks, which is indicative of the size of the university population relative to the South African population.

"The industry has evolved to the point where a basic certification or qualification is a requirement for entry - and an IT diploma, which offers the quickest route to entry, is favoured by most."

Haiden adds that the advent of the ICT empowerment charter has made it imperative to up-skill historically disadvantaged candidates as quickly as possible - and the wide range of IT diplomas available enable this.

Most respondents are fairly happy in their current position. On a scale of one to seven, respondents averaged five for job satisfaction. This is up from 4.7 six months ago, indicating that job satisfaction could be on the rise.

In terms of aggravation in the workplace, the old office bogey "politics" (14%) most irks respondents. Inadequate remuneration (12%) was second on the list, which Software Futures head of custom business solutions, Jaco van der Merwe, believes is to be expected.

"People need to get used to reality and understand that there is an adjustment phase going on. Since the boom, the industry has had to recover, and I think it is starting to mature to a level where salaries are in line with other industries."

The frustrations that were lowest on the list were poor team dynamics (5%) and late projects (3%).

Respondents cited the challenge (22%) and access to the latest technology (15%) as the most rewarding aspect of their job. Van der Merwe agrees wholeheartedly. "That is what drives people. When they don`t get challenged, or get access to technology, they become very frustrated."

Judging by this survey, a significant number of companies are ignoring the need to address a shortage of skills in the South African software sector.

Respondents indicated that shortages exist in terms of business analysis skills (23%), project management (14%), process management (10%) and team leadership (10%). A further 14% indicated their companies had skills gaps, but did not identify which competencies these covered.

Almost a quarter of respondents (23%) admitted their companies were doing nothing to address skills gaps. ITWeb editorial director Ranka Jovanovic says it is safe to assume that the 13% of respondents who did not answer this question worked for employers that had not yet implemented any initiatives to address shortages.

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On a more positive note, 22% of respondents said their companies were sponsoring training and development programmes, and a further 14% said skills analyses were being done at their workplaces. Some 15% indicated their companies were recruiting in an attempt to solve the problem.

IBM Business Consulting Services managing consultant Shane Radford says a pan-European skills survey commissioned by IBM and carried out by Forrester Consulting this year revealed that 30% of the organisations surveyed did not have programmes in place to address development of flexible business skills for employees. However, over 90% of organisations saw professional skills development as either "very important" or "critical" to their strategies.

Software Futures director Themi Themistocleous says the move to offshore outsourcing will have a fundamental impact on the ICT sector in the years ahead. Citing figures from Gartner and the International Data Corporation, he says six years from now a quarter of "traditional" US IT jobs will be done offshore. This developing trend opened up "tremendous" opportunities for the local ICT sector, says Themistocleous.

When it comes to the supply and demand of specific software development skills, respondents believe Java is in shortest supply, while there`s an over-abundance of Visual Basic developers.

Other than IT, most software development projects are commissioned by the government sector, followed by financial services, telecoms and banking.