The future of wireless technology may see a “network of networks” emerging, allowing people uninterrupted access to services when roaming across different radio access technologies.
This development, predicts wireless technology developer InterDigital, will lead to a “mega network transparent to the users”.
Jack Indekeu, director of corporate marketing at InterDigital, says the wireless industry is not just about voice anymore. “As the market matures and there is more bandwidth available, new services and applications are emerging. It's a different environment with many new players.”
According to Indekeu, the wealth of opportunities for innovation means even companies not traditionally associated with wireless technology, such as IBM, Google and Intel, are moving into the space. “This is because, one, they can't afford not to, and two, because they recognise the potential in the new game.”
Research from Informa Telecoms & Media predicts mobile broadband subscribers will represent nearly one-third of total mobile subscribers worldwide by 2013.
Robert Wuestenenk, director of broadband networks at Ericsson, says the move to mobile for business is about time to market, as companies can enter the mainstream market without having to roll out extensive infrastructure.
“We live in a society of instant gratification. People are not willing to wait for a service anymore,” says Wuestenenk.
Need for speed
One of the most significant developments in the industry is long-term evolution (LTE), the next step in 3G wireless technology, which provides enhanced speed and capacity.
According to industry body 3GPP, all-IP LTE provides four times the throughput compared to HSDPA, using the same amount of spectrum. It enables streaming video, voice-over-IP, video conferencing, and content downloads on mobile phones at fixed broadband speeds.
Wuestenenk explains that LTE offers data transfer rates of 41Mbps, going up to 100, 200 and even 300Mbps. “If you look at it in relation to the highest available bandwidth in SA, it's about 15 times faster. So instead of waiting two seconds for a page to load, it will take milliseconds.”
In a move that demonstrates the investments being made in this next-generation technology, Ericsson recently acquired Nortel's wireless assets for $1.13 billion. “We're capitalising on the work already done and [Nortel's] R&D expertise,” says Wuestenenk. “LTE is mature enough already; Ericsson is deploying a network in Sweden, which should go live in the last quarter of the year.”
Naresh Soni, InterDigital's vice-president of strategic engineering, says 4G will replace the broadband technologies of today but also function alongside them. “There is going to be a network of networks for high-definition applications, 3G for low band voice, with an overlay of 4G over 3G networks.”
He adds that handover technologies will increasingly allow users to roam across interfaces, moving seamlessly between 2G/3G, WiFi, WiMax, and LTE.
Wuestenenk agrees: “As technology evolves, the handoff between 2G, 3G, and LTE will become invisible to the end-user.”
But wireless has its limitations, says Wuestenenk, adding that one shouldn't forget about wireline. “There is only so much spectrum and there will crowding of the spectrum in future. So there may be a need for fibre-based technology to provide true broadband.”
Looking ahead
Soni says some of the industry's major challenges include bandwidth, with operators reaching data saturation point and moving towards high bandwidth networks. “For broadband the challenge is latency, so we're evolving to low latency networks,” he adds.
Wuestenenk says the widespread uptake of LTE is limited at the moment by the availability of handsets. “As mainstream vendors come online to provide handsets and chips for computers, that will drive adoption going forward.”
However, Wuestenenk doesn't see an LTE-dedicated mobile device any time soon. “I don't think we'll see an LTE handset in the short-term, it's more likely that there will be an LTE dongle or a modem because you don't want to watch a full-feature film while walking down the street. It's likely to be more laptop- and home-computer-driven.”
Carriers in countries including Canada, the US, Norway and France have announced plans to upgrade their networks to 4G. Verizon Wireless has said it will introduce LTE selectively in the US later this year, extending its reach in early 2010. Japan's NTT DoCoMo has also committed to rolling out LTE in December 2010.
As higher bandwidth becomes more widely available, InterDigital believes there will be changes in the sources of communication. “In most of the world people connect to people, but the future environment will see people connecting to things and things connecting to things,” says Indekeu.
According to Wuestenenk, as people learn to use technologies, there will be an increase in people-to-machine communication, while services such as e-government, e-banking, and everyday applications will involve more machine-to-machine interaction.
“But communication is still about people, they want to hear a voice. I would say about 95% of telecoms will remain people to people.”
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