Work from home if bird flu hits

South African businesses` only real option in the event of a pandemic, such as bird flu, striking will be to implement a remote-office strategy in which staff work from home.

Continuity SA GM of consultancy services Louise Theunissen says organisations are already looking at ways to enable staff to work from home if a pandemic strikes. She adds every decade sees at least two pandemics, heightening the odds of an incident occurring.

While no industry studies have been done, Theunissen says collated information indicates at least 25% of a workforce could be wiped out if bird flu becomes transmissible between people. This is not likely to be spread over a workforce, she says, and will instead concentrate in one area.

Moreover, research shows there could be an economic impact if the flu hits those in the 25- to 40-year age group. She says this could result in, for example, a company`s call centre being wiped out.

However, up to 80% of SA`s employees cannot work from home. The South African Reserve Bank`s figures indicate that most of the economy is made up of industries such as mining, farming and agriculture.

The balance, at 20%, mostly in the financial services and insurance sectors, would be best placed to work from home. The remainder, says Theunissen, would have to look at policies and procedures in addition to extra hygiene measures to limit the impact.

The World Bank estimates that a severe outbreak among humans could cost the global economy about 3.1% of world gross domestic product - about $1.25 trillion on a world economic output of $40 trillion. The South Africa Reserve Bank puts local gross domestic product at R1.5 trillion. At 3.1%, avian flu could cost the country as much as R45 billion a year.

Analysts and commentators within the IT industry - who asked not to be named - say while technically feasible, this is not a humanitarian solution. It would result in the elite who were able to - and could afford to - being locked up at home.

Cosatu spokesperson Patrick Craven says the idea is a non-starter. The retail industry alone would collapse; there would be a detrimental effect on the economy, he says, adding in some sectors such as mining, the solution is simply untenable.

The UK`s Telegraph reports if the virus arrives in a form that can be passed on from human to human, as much as 25% of the UK`s population could become infected.

As a result, companies such as Vodafone, Norwich Union, PricewaterhouseCoopers and KPMG aim to make it viable for staff to work from home. "Some workplace meetings would be replaced by video conference calls," the Telegraph says.

It quotes a senior executive for Vodafone: "Bird flu is a real threat and we are taking it seriously. Working from home means people will be at less risk from getting the virus and could play a crucial role in keeping our business going."