South Africa’s entry-level and junior jobs could come under severe pressure over the next decade, as artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics increasingly automate routine cognitive work, potentially shutting younger workers out of the labour market.
This is according to new strategic research by Old Mutual Investments, which warns that administrative work, customer service, data entry, junior financial analysis and basic coding roles are among the occupations most vulnerable to AI-driven disruption.
The research, conducted by Hywel George, director of investments at Old Mutual Investment Group, examines the long-term implications of rapid advances of AI and robotics for economies around the world, with important relevance for SA.
According to the report, workers in their 20s and 30s could face the sharpest disruption, with fewer pathways into the workforce as companies automate routine tasks.
“For South Africa, this conversation is especially urgent. We already face high unemployment, deep inequality and a large youth population entering a labour market under pressure. AI doesn’t create these challenges, but it could amplify them if we’re not prepared,” says George.
No one is safe
The research identifies administrative work, data entry, customer service, junior financial analysis and basic coding among the occupations most vulnerable to AI-driven disruption.
This has particular relevance for SA’s urban labour market, where services, back-office processing and entry-level white-collar roles remain important employment pathways for younger workers.
The report also notes that while occupations requiring complex judgement, creativity, care and human interaction may prove more resilient in the short-term, no category of work is fully protected as robotics and AI capabilities continue to evolve.
“One of the biggest risks for South Africa is the erosion of entry-level and junior roles. These jobs are often the first rung on the ladder for young people. If that rung is undermined, social mobility becomes even harder,” George explains.
The study warns that the convergence of cognitive and physical displacement “will have no historical precedent in terms of speed or scope”.
Intensifying inequality
Beyond employment concerns, the research argues that work remains central to identity, dignity and social belonging, meaning widespread displacement may trigger broader societal consequences.
It highlights the risk that ownership of advanced AI systems and robotics infrastructure could become concentrated among a small group of global firms and investors, further widening wealth disparities.
“Technology can produce enormous wealth. But without thoughtful governance, that wealth risks becoming even more concentrated both globally and locally. The future is not just about efficiency or growth, but human-centric value,” adds George.
The research also raises concerns around mental health, social cohesion and political stability, warning that the pace of AI-driven disruption may outstrip the ability of democratic institutions to respond effectively.
Historical parallels referenced in the report include the Industrial Revolution and global manufacturing offshoring. However, it argues that AI displacement between 2025 and 2035 could unfold far more rapidly and across both cognitive and physical work simultaneously.
Retaining value
While the research outlines a possible “post-scarcity economy” in which AI and robotics dramatically reduce the cost of producing goods and services, it argues that several key forms of scarcity will remain.
The report identifies energy, raw materials, land and human attention as areas likely to retain significant value as AI systems scale globally.
For SA, energy constraints are expected to become particularly significant given the country’s ongoing infrastructure challenges and electricity supply limitations.
“In a country where energy is already a strategic constraint, AI doesn’t just raise economic questions; it raises infrastructure and policy questions. We need forward-looking conversations about skills, education, distribution and the role of the state in a world where work may no longer be the primary source of income for many,” George continues.
The report also notes that minerals and rare earth materials could remain strategically important as demand rises for robotics systems, data centres and AI infrastructure.
The report concludes that the rise of AI represents both an engineering challenge and a governance crisis, with political and institutional decisions likely to determine how the benefits of technological abundance are distributed.
“The future is not just about efficiency or growth. It’s about whether we can build an economy and a society that values people for more than their economic output. Technology creates abundance, but political and institutional choices determine its distribution,” George concludes.
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